Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 0.040262 0.045358 0.050999 0.057736 0.065596 0.074518 0.085469
2026-02-08 0.032695 0.039140 0.046834 0.056790 0.069467 0.085252 0.106685
2026-02-15 0.027311 0.034435 0.043513 0.056131 0.073535 0.097189 0.132650
2026-02-22 0.023467 0.031013 0.041224 0.056403 0.079029 0.112588 0.168322
2026-03-01 0.020350 0.028063 0.039087 0.056543 0.084576 0.129914 0.213573
2026-03-08 0.017421 0.024928 0.036187 0.055051 0.087494 0.144439 0.260954
2026-03-15 0.014556 0.021468 0.032255 0.051213 0.085796 0.151055 0.297826
2026-03-22 0.012966 0.019748 0.030792 0.051235 0.091058 0.172678 0.378011
2026-03-29 0.011820 0.018573 0.030041 0.052403 0.098994 0.203171 0.499547
2026-04-05 0.010680 0.017251 0.028829 0.052493 0.104949 0.232351 0.641745
2026-04-12 0.009663 0.016002 0.027558 0.052227 0.110221 0.262878 0.818048
2026-04-19 0.008663 0.014653 0.025897 0.050828 0.112568 0.287437 1.002569
2026-04-26 0.007678 0.013231 0.023923 0.048447 0.112115 0.305119 1.189062
2026-05-03 0.007070 0.012446 0.023110 0.048563 0.118480 0.348850 1.568857
2026-05-10 0.006541 0.011750 0.022381 0.048746 0.125305 0.399751 2.096215
2026-05-17 0.006125 0.011229 0.021946 0.049588 0.134640 0.468404 2.927189
2026-05-24 0.005739 0.010721 0.021463 0.050221 0.143777 0.545424 4.105919
2026-05-31 0.005296 0.010041 0.020497 0.049343 0.147610 0.602907 5.370861
2026-06-07 0.004769 0.009131 0.018877 0.046298 0.142610 0.612531 6.152472
2026-06-14 0.004493 0.008736 0.018428 0.046579 0.150510 0.703312 8.732420
2026-06-21 0.004295 0.008491 0.018308 0.047840 0.163130 0.840583 13.600974
2026-06-28 0.004063 0.008146 0.017895 0.048105 0.171885 0.966966 20.239589
2026-07-05 0.003837 0.007790 0.017403 0.048017 0.179228 1.097093 30.013317